Businesses are facing the negative impact of various shocks that have hit the Italian economy. High inflation and the sharp rise in interest rates are leading to a progressive deterioration of firms’ financial soundness. Persistent uncertainties on inflation and interest rates, economic slowdown and the geopolitical scenario will lead to a significant deterioration in credit quality over the next two years. ABI and Cerved estimate that the new NPL ratio for nonfinancial companies will reach 3.1% in 2023 (up from 2.2% in 2022), exceeding for the first time the level prior to Covid (2.9% in 2019). In 2024, a further increase is expected, driving the rate to a peak of 3.8%, the highest level since 2016. In 2025, the trend will reverse, bringing the rate back to 3.1%.
