Journal of
Italian
Banking
Association
year 100
Italian
Banking
Association
year 100
The demographic decline of Southern Italy
Corrado BonifaziMay 2026 - n. 5
Keywords: Mezzogiorno, crisi demografica, fecondità, migrazioni, politiche demografiche
Jel codes: J11, J13, J18, R11
The article examines the demographic decline of the Mezzogiorno in contemporary Italy. Since 2014, nearly 80% of Italy's overall population loss has been concentrated in the southern regions, driven by negative natural balances, fertility rates structurally below replacement level, and a persistently unfavourable internal migration balance. The Mezzogiorno finds itself caught in a twofold demographic trap: the contraction of the female population of reproductive age compounds the decline in births, while outmigration – predominantly among young people and with a significant highly-educated component – drains the human capital essential for development. Istat projections for 2050 foreshadow an acceleration of population ageing, with the attendant risk of progressive demographic desertification in inland areas.
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