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Conflict and Uncertainty: the surprising role of fear in financial markets

Natascia Angelini, Enrico Maria Cervellati, Gennaro De Novellis, Gian Paolo Stella
December 2025 - n. 12
Keywords: Mercati finanziari, reazioni emotive, guerra
Jel codes: G20, G41

The conflict in Ukraine has led to increased uncertainty among operators, and literature attests that this uncertainty has led to an increase in volatility in global financial markets. Data from this study were collected between 1 March and 30 April 2022 using Cawi methodology, obtaining 2,000 responses, reduced to 1,729 after elimination of the missing values. The aim of the research is to verify whether the fear related to the outbreak of the conflict is correlated to both confidence and investment choices on the financial markets. The results show that the individuals more intimidated by the escalation of the conflict tend to place greater trust in financial markets, but, at the same time, the fear aroused by the war reduces their propensity to invest.

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